Accurately predict your future portfolio.
Projects are very complex, containing highly dependent activities with
uncertainty in duration and work constrained by the availability of resources.
Portfolios contain many of these complex projects competing for availability
of shared resources. When you include additional sources of portfolio
variability such as project attrition, revenue projections, etc; it is
easy to see how portfolio complexity makes accurately predicting your
future portfolio difficult and time consuming.
Unlike traditional portfolio analysis tools, Portfolio Simulator is
capable of modeling portfolio complexity. In addition to your typical
project and portfolio fields, Portfolio Simulator allows you to add such
properties as:
Project
• Attrition (Probability of Project Terminating)
• Revenue statistical distribution
• Duration and Cycle Time statistical distributions
Resource
• Unit Requirements statistical distribution
• Required Work statistical distribution
•Capacity
Portfolio
• Variability On/Off
• Unconstrained On/Off
• Annual Percentage Rate for Revenue projections
The discrete event simulation engine executes your portfolio hundreds
of times, reporting the probable outcomes around portfolio metrics such
as:
• Portfolio and Project Net Present Value
• Present Value of Cost
• Present Value of Revenue
• Resource Capacity to Requirements comparisons
• Starts and Completions for key stages
• Expected start and finish dates for key stages
 System
Complexity and Analysis Tools
Simulation is just one of many problem solving tools. Spreadsheets, linear
programming models, integer programming models, MRP and Monte Carlo simulations
are all valid tools for solving problems when appropriate.
As the chart below shows, systems have different levels of interdependence
and levels of randomness. The more parts of a system are influenced by other
parts of the system the more interdependent the system becomes. As the variability
of actions within the system becomes greater, the more unpredictable the results
of these actions become.
As interdependence and randomness increase, the system becomes more
and more complex. Discrete event simulation is particularly appropriate
as the complexity of a system increases. At some point It simply becomes
too difficult to describe the complexity of the system using other analysis
techniques.
It is estimated that 90% of projects are late and over budget. Obviously
the baselines for these projects are not accurately estimating project
timelines. Given the complexity of projects, discrete event simulation
is an ideal technology for improved prediction of project timelines.
For more information about our Portfolio VAO
Solutions please call (800) 816-5338 or email PortfolioVAO@ProModel.com.
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